Sturgeon Lake Real Estate ~ Market Value Update
Whether you are an owner of a cottage who is considering selling, or a prospective buyer, it is important to be as informed as possible on local market conditions. In my previous career as a managing director at a major Canadian financial institution, I developed a deep appreciation for the importance of sound analytics, and have applied these concepts to glean insights on broader market trends as well as individual property valuation. In an effort to promote greater transparency and efficiency in our local markets, I am pleased to provide monthly in-season statistics and commentary on each of the major lakes in our service area. If you are interested in a more precise valuation of your property, please contact me at (705) 438-3000 or email me and I would be happy to provide a value estimate at no cost.
~ David Donais, Sales Representative/Owner
Sturgeon Lake Market Value Update ~ May 18, 2018
- Since April 30, activity has picked up on Sturgeon Lake, with 10 new listings and 7 new sales on the lake (as well as an additional 7 conditional sales). On a year-to-date basis (Jan. 1/18 – May 18/18), total sales volume on the lake is $7.3 million, down significantly from $13.2 million for the same period last year.
Sturgeon Lake Market Value Update ~ April 30, 2018
- Evidence indicates that Sturgeon Lake is now a buyer’s market – in sharp contrast to the strong seller’s market that prevailed last spring. The charts below illustrate this swing. They compare the number of new listings in a given period to the number of sales in the same period. A high proportion of sales in relation to new listings indicates a seller’s market, while a low proportion indicates a buyer’s market. In the January 1 – April 30, 2018 period, there have been 35 new listings and only six sales. Last year during the same period there were 27 new listings and 20 sales.
- The slower start is most likely the result of a combination of poor spring weather and more balanced market conditions. It is not surprising that market conditions are weaker in comparison to last spring when there was a significant overhang of buyers with substantial equity positions in their GTA homes.
- Another factor likely resulting in lower sales activity is that asking prices are relatively high. As noted in the 2017 summary below, the average sale price to assessed value ratio for all waterfront sales on Sturgeon Lake in 2017 was 1.38. In other words, the sale price for a given property was, on average, 1.38 times that property’s 2016 MPAC assessed value. For the 24 active listings on Sturgeon Lake as at April 30, 2018, the average asking price to assessed value ratio is 1.55. In other words, the asking price for a current waterfront listing on Sturgeon Lake is, on average, 1.55 times that property’s 2016 MPAC assessed value. This difference in today’s asking prices versus last year’s sales prices may well be leading potential buyers to balk at paying these higher asking prices, especially given the year-over-year declines in prices they are familiar with in the GTA.
- Five of the six sales so far in 2018 have been in the $500,000 - $600,000 range, with no sales above $600,000. In contrast, 10 of the 20 sales in the same period last year were for greater than $600,000.
2017 Sturgeon Lake Summary
- The average sale price was $559,000 in 2017, up 6% from 2016, and 41% from 2014.
- Sixty-four properties were sold in 2017, down from 81 in 2016.
- Market dynamics on Sturgeon Lake (and all of the western Kawarthas) were influenced by events in the GTA housing market. The spring market was especially frothy, with large numbers of buyers competing for relatively few listings. Bidding wars were common.
- Cottage buyer interest receded somewhat after the imposition of the foreign buyer tax in the GTA. Mid-priced cottages (up to $700,000) continued to sell quickly, however, while sales of higher priced cottages slowed considerably.
- The trend to higher market values on Sturgeon Lake was supported by another metric we track closely – the Sale Price to Assessed Value Ratio. In 2017, the average ratio for Sturgeon Lake was 1.38, a 18% increase from the 1.17 ratio realized in 2016.
- The 2017 trend on Sturgeon Lake towards higher average sale prices, higher Sale Price to Assessed Value ratios, and a relatively low volume of listings, is consistent with trends on other lakes we track closely (Balsam/Cameron/Four Mile/Shadow/Head). However, the buyer population differs somewhat on Sturgeon Lake in comparison to these other lakes in that Sturgeon Lake attracts a higher proportion of buyers looking to live year-round on the lake. This is primarily due to Sturgeon Lake’s proximity to services and attractions located in Lindsay, Bobcaygeon and Fenelon Falls.
Read Other Kawartha Lakes Market Value Updates