Four Mile Lake Real Estate ~ Market Value Update


Whether you are an owner of a cottage who is considering selling, or a prospective buyer, it is important to be as informed as possible on local market conditions. In my previous career as a managing director at a major Canadian financial institution, I developed a deep appreciation for the importance of sound analytics, and have applied these concepts to glean insights on broader market trends as well as individual property valuation. In an effort to promote greater transparency and efficiency in our local markets, I am pleased to provide monthly in-season statistics and commentary on each of the major lakes in our service area. If you are interested in a more precise valuation of your property, please contact me at (705) 438-3000 or email me and I would be happy to provide a value estimate at no cost.
~ David Donais, Broker of Record/Owner

Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2019

  • Listing activity so far in 2019 is down from the same period in the previous two years, consistent with most other lakes in the western Kawarthas.
  • The two sales so far in 2019 were sold at prices slightly above $500,000.



Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2019

  • Two additional listings appeared in the last two weeks of May. Overall listing and sales activity remains below the same period in 2018 and 2017.
  • The two sales so far in 2019 were sold at slightly above $500,000.



Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ May 15, 2019

Only one listing so far in 2019

  • Consistent with most other lakes in the western Kawarthas, activity has been very low in comparison with 2018 and 2017.
  • The one listing in 2019 was very highly desired however, with multiple offers and a sale price significantly above the asking price.


2018 Four Mile Lake Market Value Summary

  • The average sale price was $724,000 in 2018, up 10% from 2017, and 85% from 2015.
    • The increase in 2018 was influenced by the late-fall sale of the most expensive waterfront property on record on Four Mile Lake.
    • Only Balsam Lake had a higher average sale price in 2018 among the six key lakes we monitor (Four Mile/Shadow/Head/Balsam/Sturgeon/Cameron).
  • A below-average nine properties were sold in 2018, down from 11 in 2017.
  • One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during the year. In 2018, the average ratio for the nine Four Mile Lake sales was 1.37, down from the historically high ratio of 1.54 realized in 2017. While this ratio taken in isolation would suggest falling prices, it is important to note that the ratio can be volatile where there are few data points. The aggregate ratio for the six key lakes in our region was unchanged year-over-year at 1.38, which supports my belief that waterfront prices were relatively stable.
  • Waterfront properties took much longer to sell in 2018 – the median number of days on the market for properties sold on the six key lakes in our region was 48 days, more than double the 2017 median of 23 days.
  • Other key takeaways from the 2018 market include:
    • The conventional wisdom that spring is the most active period for cottage sales was contradicted in 2018 – the post-September 1st market for waterfront properties in the western Kawarthas was much stronger than the pre-June 1st market.
    • Buyers almost uniformly desire to use their cottages year-round – if you have a three-season property, it would be well worth your while to investigate the feasibility of enhancing it to four- season capability.
  • Looking forward, I am hoping that the strong momentum from the fall 2018 market will carry into 2019. However, while the prospect of higher interest rates in 2019 appears to be receding, the late-2018 correction in financial markets has the potential to dampen buyer demand for waterfront properties. As always, real estate market conditions in the GTA will heavily influence our market.


Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ October 15, 2018

Listing and sales activity, as well as sale prices, are down from last year.

  • The average sale price of the 8 properties sold to-date in 2018 is $607,000, down from the average sale price of $655,000 for all Four Mile Lake sales in 2017.
  • The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the five sales so far this year is 1.33, also down from the 1.55 ratio realized for all sales on Four Mile Lake last year.


Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2018

Sales are down from last year, and concentrated in lower-priced properties.

  • August was a slow month on the lake, with no new listings and only one sale. Both listing and sales activity is down from 2017 on a year-to-date basis.
  • The average sale price of the five properties sold to-date in 2018 is $626,000, down from the average sale price of $655,000 average price for all Four Mile Lake sales in 2017.
  • The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the five sales so far this year is 1.29, also down significantly from the 1.55 ratio realized for all sales on Four Mile Lake last year.


Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2018

Sales are down from last year, and concentrated in lower-priced properties.

  • Listing activity in 2018 is in line with last year, while sales are down.
  • The average sale price of the five properties sold to-date in 2018 is $569,000, down significantly from the average sale price of $655,000 average price for all Four Mile Lake sales in 2017.
  • The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the five sales so far this year is 1.26, also down significantly from the 1.55 ratio realized for all sales on Four Mile Lake last year.
  • In contrast, the average Asking Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the seven active listings on the lake is relatively high at 1.68.


Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2018

Both listings and sales are down from last year.

  • There were no new sales on Four Mile Lake in June 2018. Both listings and sales are down on a year-to-date basis in 2018 as compared to 2017.


Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2018

Sales so far this year have been concentrated at the lower end of the price range.

  • Since April 30, there has been one new listing and one additional sale on the lake. Listing activity is down significantly from May 2017, when there were seven new listings and two sales. On a year-to-date basis (Jan. 1/18 – May 31/18), new listings are down moderately from last year.
  • The average sale price of the three properties sold to-date in 2018 is $497,000, down significantly from the average sale price of $719,000 for the three properties sold in the same time period last year, and the $655,000 average price for all Four Mile Lake sales in 2017.
  • The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the three sales so far this year is 1.22, down from the 1.47 ratio realized on the three sales in the same period last year, and the 1.55 ratio realized for all sales on Four Mile Lake last year. These results are consistent with the trend highlighted last year where properties with lower assessed values sold for a lower multiple of assessed value.
  • There are insufficient data points to provide confidence of a downward trend in pricing on Four Mile Lake so far in 2018. Indeed, the strong May results for Sturgeon Lake may provide some support – Sturgeon Lake trends tend to be a leading indicator of trends on other lakes in the region. Anecdotal evidence from our buyer agents that buyers are now coming out in much greater numbers also support the thought that the market may improve as we move into the summer months.


Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ May 18, 2018

  • Since April 30, there has been one new listing and one additional sale on the lake. On a year-to-date basis (Jan. 1/18 – May 18/18), total sales volume on the lake is $1.3 million, down from $2.1 million for the same period last year.


Four Mile Lake Market Value Update ~ April 30, 2018

  • There has been somewhat more market activity on Four Mile Lake so far in 2018 than in the same period last year. There have been five new listings and two sales over the Jan. 1 – Apr. 30 period versus two new listings and one sale during the same period last year. There are insufficient data points to identify a definitive trend, but market activity on the larger lakes such as Sturgeon and Balsam lakes suggest more of a buyer’s market in 2018 in contrast to the seller’s market in 2017.
  • The two sales in 2018 yielded an average sale price to assessed value ratio of 1.26, well below last year’s average of 1.55 for all 2017 sales on Four Mile Lake (see summary below).
  • The four active listings as at April 30, 2018 had an average list price to assessed value ratio of 1.49, in line with last year’s average of 1.55 for all 2017 sales on Four Mile Lake.


2017 Four Mile Lake Summary

  • The average sale price was $655,000 in 2017, up 23% from 2016, and 68% from 2015.
  • Eleven properties were sold in 2017, unchanged from 2016. However, 2017 was unusual in that 8 of the 11 sales occurred in the north-east corner of the lake. There were very few listings on other areas of the lake in 2017.
  • Market dynamics on Four Mile Lake (and all of the western Kawarthas) were influenced by events in the GTA housing market. The spring market was especially frothy, with large numbers of buyers competing for relatively few listings.
  • Cottage buyer interest receded somewhat after the imposition of the foreign buyer tax in the GTA. Mid-priced cottages (up to $600,000) continued to sell quickly, however, while sales of higher priced cottages slowed considerably.
  • The trend to higher market values on Four Mile Lake was supported by another metric we track closely – the Sale Price to Assessed Value Ratio. In 2017, the average ratio for Four Mile Lake was 1.55, a 57% increase from the 0.99 ratio realized in 2016. There was a distinct difference in ratios in 2017 depending on the assessed value of the property. The average ratio for properties with assessed values above $400,000 was 1.61, while the average ratio for properties with assessed values below $400,000 was 1.43. This indicates that cottage buyers were willing to pay a premium for top quality properties.
  • The 2017 trend on Four Mile Lake towards higher average sale prices, higher Sale Price to Assessed Value ratios, and a relatively low volume of listings, is consistent with trends on other lakes we track closely (Shadow/Head/Balsam/Sturgeon/Cameron).

Read Other Kawartha Lakes Market Value Updates

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