Whether you are an owner of a cottage who is considering selling, or a prospective buyer, it is important to be as informed as possible on local market conditions. In my previous career as a managing director at a major Canadian financial institution, I developed a deep appreciation for the importance of sound analytics, and have applied these concepts to glean insights on broader market trends as well as individual property valuation. In an effort to promote greater transparency and efficiency in our local markets, I am pleased to provide monthly in-season statistics and commentary on each of the major lakes in our service area. If you are interested in a more precise valuation of your property, please contact me at (705) 438-3000 or email me and I would be happy to provide a value estimate at no cost.
~ David Donais, Broker of Record/Owner
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ October 15, 2019
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2019
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2019
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2019
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2019
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ May 15, 2019
2018 Cameron Lake Market Value Summary
- The average sale price was $694,000 in 2018, up 5% from $659,000 in 2017.
- There were 13 sales in 2018, in line with the 12 sales recorded in 2017.
- One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed
Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during
the year. In 2018, the average ratio for the 13 Cameron Lake sales was 1.30, down slightly from the
ratio of 1.33 realized in 2017. The average ratio across the six key lakes in our region (Cameron/Balsam/
Sturgeon/Four Mile/Shadow/Head) was 1.38, unchanged from 2017. These ratios support my belief
that waterfront prices were stable year-over-year.
- Waterfront properties took much longer to sell in 2018 – the median number of days on the market
for properties sold on the six key lakes in our region was 48 days, more than double the 2017 median
of 23 days. On Cameron Lake, the median was 46 days in 2018 versus 35 days in 2017. My explanation
for this increase is that buyers from the GTA who had experienced a double-digit percentage decline
in their home values were expecting similar declines in cottage prices in 2018. Cottage sellers, on the
other hand, were not willing to reduce prices in line with GTA trends as a result of their belief that
“bubble” conditions were not evident in our market. This gap in pricing expectations was resolved
largely in favour of sellers, as evidenced by stable year-over-year prices.
- Other key takeaways from the 2018 market include:
- The waterfront selling season started very slowly in the western Kawarthas but picked up momentum
as the season progressed. The post-September 1st market was very strong.
- Buyers almost uniformly desire to use their cottages year-round – if you have a three-season
property, it would be well worth your while to investigate the feasibility of enhancing it to four-
- Looking forward, I am hoping that the strong momentum from the fall 2018 market will carry into 2019.
However, while the prospect of higher interest rates in 2019 appears to be receding, the late-2018
correction in financial markets has the potential to impact buyer demand for waterfront properties.
As always, real estate market conditions in the GTA will heavily influence our market.
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ October 15, 2018
Listing and sales activity, and sale prices, are in line with 2017 levels.
- Post-Labour Day listing and sales activity has been in line with last year. Year-to-date activity is also largely consistent with last year.
- The three properties sold in the post-Labour Day period have been the three highest sale prices on the lake in 2018. The average sale price for all 2018 sales is now $663,000, in line with the $659,000 average price for all 2017 sales on Cameron Lake.
- The average Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value ratio for the 11 sales so far this year is 1.29, down slightly from the 1.33 ratio realized for all sales in 2017.
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2018
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2018
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2018
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2018
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ May 18, 2018
- Since April 30, there have been three new listings and no additional sales on the lake. On a year-to-date basis (Jan. 1/18 – May 18/18), total sales volume on the lake is $1.35 million, down from $3.0 million for the same period last year.
Cameron Lake Market Value Update ~ April 30, 2018
- Waterfront market activity on Cameron Lake so far in 2018 is in line with the same period last year. Since Jan. 1, 2018, there have been eight new listings and three sales on the lake. Last year during the same period there were also eight new listings and three sales. This trend is in sharp contrast to neighbouring Balsam and Sturgeon Lakes, where the market is considerably slower in comparison to last year.
- The three sales so far this year were all below $500,000 in value. In contrast, the three sales in the same period the previous year were all above $500,000 in value.
- The three sales this year also had a relatively low average sale price to assessed value ratio of 1.17, in comparison to the average of 1.33 for all Cameron Lake sales in 2017 (see summary below).
2017 Cameron Lake Summary
- The average sale price on Cameron Lake was $659,000 in 2017, up 17% from 2016.
- Twelve properties were sold in 2017, down significantly from the record high level of 24 in 2006.
- Market dynamics on Cameron Lake (and all of the western Kawarthas) were influenced by events in the GTA housing market. The spring market was especially frothy, with large numbers of buyers competing for relatively few listings.
- Cottage buyer interest receded somewhat after the imposition of the foreign buyer tax in the GTA. Mid-priced cottages (up to $600,000) continued to sell quickly, however, while sales of higher priced cottages slowed considerably.
- The trend to higher market values on Cameron Lake was supported by another metric we track closely – the Sale Price to Assessed Value Ratio. In 2017, the average ratio for Cameron Lake was 1.33, a 25% increase from the 1.06 ratio realized in 2016.
- The 2017 trend on Cameron Lake towards higher average sale prices, higher Sale Price to Assessed Value ratios, and a relatively low volume of listings, is consistent with trends on other lakes we track closely (Balsam/Sturgeon/Four Mile/Shadow/Head).
- Looking forward to the 2018 season, early indications are that cottage buyer interest remains high, supported by a stabilizing housing market in the GTA. It remains to be seen whether higher interest rates and new mortgage stress test rules will negatively impact the cottage market.