Canal Lake Real Estate ~ Market Value Update

2018 Canal Lake Market Value Summary

• The data in this analysis captures waterfront real estate sales on Canal Lake and on the Trent Severn Waterway (TSW) from the Simcoe County boundary to the Kirkfield Lift Lock.
• The average sale price for waterfront properties was $472,000 in 2018, down 6% from $500,000 in 2017, and up 23% from $384,000 in 2016. Sale prices in 2018 ranged from a low of $207,500 to a high of $825,000.
• There were 17 sales in 2018, down from 24 in 2017.
• One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during the year. In 2018, the average ratio for the 17 Canal Lake/TSW sales was 1.36, up 5% from 1.30 in 2017 and 26% from 1.08 in 2016.
• The relative year-over-year stability of Canal Lake/TSW prices is consistent with sale price data on most other key lakes in the western Kawarthas.
• Other key takeaways from the 2018 market include:
  • In contrast to the relatively slow spring market, the fall market for waterfront properties was very strong across the western Kawarthas. On Canal Lake, four properties sold prior to June 1st while nine sold after September 1st.
  • Buyers almost uniformly desire to use their properties year-round – if you have a three-season property, it would be well worth your while to investigate the feasibility of enhancing it to four- season capability.
• Looking forward, I am hoping that the strong momentum from the fall 2018 market will carry into 2019. However, while the prospect of higher interest rates in 2019 appears to be receding, the late-2018 correction in financial markets has the potential to dampen buyer demand for waterfront properties. As always, real estate market conditions in the GTA will heavily influence our market.