Canal Lake Real Estate ~ Market Value Update

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2019 Canal Lake Market Value Summary

• The data in this analysis captures waterfront real estate sales on Canal Lake and on the Trent-Severn Waterway (TSW) from the Simcoe County boundary to the Kirkfield Lift Lock.
• 34 waterfront properties were put on the market in 2019 and 19 (56%) sold. Seven (37%) of the sold properties required one or more price reductions. These proportions are largely consistent with trends across the key lakes and rivers in the western Kawarthas.
• The average sale price for waterfront properties was $420,000 in 2019, down 11% from $472,000 in 2018. This decline is attributable primarily to fewer higher-end properties selling in 2019 – three properties sold for $750,000 or more in 2018, while the highest sale price in 2019 was $685,000.
• One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during the year. In 2019, the average ratio for the 19 Canal Lake/TSW sales was 1.38, up 3% from the 1.36 ratio in 2018.
• The relative year-over-year stability of Canal Lake/TSW prices is consistent with sale price data across the key lakes and rivers in the western Kawarthas. The average sale price-to-assessed value ratio for the 185 waterfront sales in the region was 1.44, up 3% from 1.40 in 2018.
• Looking forward, I am cautiously optimistic that 2020 will be a positive year for the waterfront market. I noticed strong momentum in the fall months – almost half of Kawartha Waterfront Realty’s 2019 sales took place after September 30th, and buyer inquiries to our office have remained strong in the early winter months. Real estate market conditions in the GTA also appear to be improving, which helps fuel demand for waterfront properties.

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Canal Lake/Trent Severn Waterway Market Value Update ~ October 15, 2019

Strong sales activity in 2019.

• Sales are up materially on Canal Lake and nearby sections of the Trent Severn Waterway so far in 2019, although there have been only five sales since early June.
• The average sale price so far in 2019 of $435,000 is down from the $472,000 average sale price for all of 2018. However, the average sale price-to-assessed value for these sales is 1.38, slightly higher than the average of 1.36 for all sales on Canal Lake in 2018.
• There were 11 listings on Canal Lake as at October 15, 2019.

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Canal Lake/Trent Severn Waterway Market Value Update ~ August 31, 2019

Strong sales activity in 2019.

• Sales are up materially on Canal Lake and nearby sections of the Trent Severn Waterway so far in 2019, although there have been only three sales since early June.
• The average sale price so far in 2019 of $428,000 is down from the $472,000 average sale price for all of 2018. However, the average sale price-to-assessed value for these sales is 1.36, unchanged from the average of 1.36 for all sales on Canal Lake in 2018.
• There were 13 active listings on Canal Lake as at August 31, 2019.

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Canal Lake/Trent Severn Waterway Market Value Update ~ July 31, 2019

Strong listing and sales activity so far in 2019.

• New listing volumes and sales are up materially on Canal Lake and nearby sections of the Trent Severn Waterway so far in 2019.
• There have been 11 sales so far in 2019. The average sale price so far in 2019 of $430,000 is down from the $472,000 average sale price for all of 2018. However, the average sale price-to-assessed value for these sales is 1.35, in line with the average of 1.36 for all sales on Canal Lake in 2018.

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Canal Lake/Trent Severn Waterway Market Value Update ~ June 30, 2019

Strong listing and sales activity so far in 2019.

• In contrast to almost every other lake in the western Kawarthas, new listing volumes and sales are up materially on Canal Lake and nearby sections of the Trent Severn Waterway so far in 2019. Several of the new listings were also on the market in 2018 and expired unsold.
• There have been 10 sales so far in 2019. The average sale price so far in 2019 of $405,000 is down significantly from the $472,000 average sale price for all of 2018. However, the average sale price-to-assessed value for these sales is 1.35, in line with the average of 1.36 for all sales on Canal Lake in 2018.

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Canal Lake/Trent Severn Waterway Market Value Update ~ May 31, 2019

Strong listing and sales activity so far in 2019.

• In contrast to almost every other lake in the western Kawarthas, new listing volumes and sales are up substantially on Canal Lake and nearby sections of the Trent Severn Waterway so far in 2019. Several of the new listings were also on the market in 2018 and expired unsold.
• There have been eight sales so far in 2019. The average sale price-to-assessed value for these sales is 1.27, versus an average of 1.36 for all sales on Canal Lake in 2018. The average sale price so far in 2019 of $363,000 is also down considerably from the $472,000 average sale price for all of 2018.

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Canal Lake/Trent Severn Waterway Market Value Update ~ May 15, 2019

Plenty of new listings so far in 2019.

• In contrast to almost every other lake in the western Kawarthas, new listing volumes are up substantially on Canal Lake and nearby sections of the Trent Severn Waterway so far in 2019. Several of the new listings were also on the market in 2018 and expired unsold.
• There have been three sales so far in 2019, versus two sales in the same period last year.

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2018 Canal Lake Market Value Summary

• The data in this analysis captures waterfront real estate sales on Canal Lake and on the Trent Severn Waterway (TSW) from the Simcoe County boundary to the Kirkfield Lift Lock.
• The average sale price for waterfront properties was $472,000 in 2018, down 6% from $500,000 in 2017, and up 23% from $384,000 in 2016. Sale prices in 2018 ranged from a low of $207,500 to a high of $825,000.
• There were 17 sales in 2018, down from 24 in 2017.
• One metric I track closely to provide insight into pricing trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales during the year. In 2018, the average ratio for the 17 Canal Lake/TSW sales was 1.36, up 5% from 1.30 in 2017 and 26% from 1.08 in 2016.
• The relative year-over-year stability of Canal Lake/TSW prices is consistent with sale price data on most other key lakes in the western Kawarthas.
• Other key takeaways from the 2018 market include:
  • In contrast to the relatively slow spring market, the fall market for waterfront properties was very strong across the western Kawarthas. On Canal Lake, four properties sold prior to June 1st while nine sold after September 1st.
  • Buyers almost uniformly desire to use their properties year-round – if you have a three-season property, it would be well worth your while to investigate the feasibility of enhancing it to four- season capability.
• Looking forward, I am hoping that the strong momentum from the fall 2018 market will carry into 2019. However, while the prospect of higher interest rates in 2019 appears to be receding, the late-2018 correction in financial markets has the potential to dampen buyer demand for waterfront properties. As always, real estate market conditions in the GTA will heavily influence our market.