Pigeon Lake Real Estate ~ Market Value Update

2022 Pigeon Lake Market Value Summary

Western Kawartha waterbodies include Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Pigeon, Canal, Mitchell, Dalrymple, Head, Four Mile and Crystal lakes as well as the Shadow Lake System and the Burnt River.

• The metric I use to track price trends is the Sale Price-to-MPAC Assessed Value Ratio, which is simply the ratio of the sale price of an individual property to its MPAC assessed value. I calculate this ratio for each sale recorded, as well as an average ratio for all sales in each month.
• The chart above summarizes the monthly average Sale Price-to-Assessed Value Ratios in 2022 for the 12 major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas as well as across the entirety of cottage country. I have included the broader cottage country metric as the larger number of sales in this database adds credibility to the trends. For example, there were only three sales in the western Kawarthas in December 2022 so I would not put much faith in the 2.14 metric for that month.
• Prices reached an all-time high in the early months of 2022 as buyers with pre-approved financing at very low rates chased the few waterfront listings on the market. The result was fierce bidding wars and sale prices substantially over asking. Buyers became extremely cautious once interest rates started to increase in late spring, and prices fell materially throughout the summer months before stabilizing in the autumn. Notwithstanding this retrenchment, price levels in December 2022 remained 62% above pre-pandemic levels.
• There were 39 sales on Pigeon Lake in 2022, down from 55 sales in 2021.
• After May 31st only 23 of the 50 active cottage listings on Pigeon Lake sold, with sale prices averaging $110,000 (10%) under the original asking price.
• The average sale price-to-assessed value multiple for the 39 Pigeon Lake sales was 2.86, slightly higher than the 2.65 average multiple realized across cottage country and the 2.75 average multiple for the 12 major waterbodies in the western Kawarthas in 2022.
• The average sale price of the Pigeon Lake sales in 2022 was $1,180,000, up 8% from $1,090,000 in 2021. Sale prices in 2022 ranged from $430,000 to $2,700,000.
• It is difficult to predict how prices will evolve over the next 12 months but my sense is that we will return to normal market conditions with relatively stable prices once the rate increase cycle ceases.